# new to talk stats

#### vinneth

##### New Member
hey guys,

i'm a DJ in Canberra Australia, looking to develop my knowledge, and stats have always interested me. I have previously completed 1.5 years in a bachelor of software engineering, life took a different path, and i'm now looking to grow my understanding again.

the thing that has me on the site right now is probability, and its use in gaming (bookmaking) theory.

anyone want to help out?

#### jpkelley

##### TS Contributor
Hi and welcome,
It's a good group here on TS. There are lots of contributors here who are very flexible thinkers and enjoy spending time trying to tackle interesting questions. This is the reason I've stuck around!

A DJ, huh? I think that may be a first for TS. Excellent!

#### TheEcologist

##### Global Moderator
Welcome, Happy to have you aboard. What kind of topics are you interested in?

#### vinneth

##### New Member
well my first scenario is this:

there is a site offering odds on basketball matches (as an example), particularly on the spread. Betting on both sides, if team a wins by more than 2.5 points, and you get odds of 2.06. IF team b loses by less than 3.5 points, you get odds of 2.06. This gives you a return of 3%, unless team a wins by exactly 3 points. IF that is the case, all money is lost.

On indicitive statistical data (the sample pool is way to small to be deifinitive) there is approximately 4.5% chance that the book maker will set the spread correctly, meaning there is a 1 in 22.5 chance of picking a game that will lose money.

Given this, there are 2 thoughts on how to proceed. What i would like to know is how to prove which of these is correct:

1) spread the money evenly accross multiple games. Example, I have 10 lots of \$100 divided amongst the games. This means i will lose 1 of the bets every 2.25 times I put these on.

2) spread the money evenly between a couple of games, in this example 3. That means I will lose one of the bets every 7ish times i put these on.

Assume that when there is a win, the money is re-invested back into the next iteration of bets.

my assuption is that option 2 is the better way to go, and I would like to articulate this to a friend, but don't have the language for it (and possibly not the understanding).