NFL postseason probabilities

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

This is a continuation of thread: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/odds-probabilities.52932/.

With the Patriots being cruelly eliminated from the playoffs, much to the delight of others, at least I have my numbers to watch and provide entertainment.

The nonlinear odds-to-probability derivations for the remaining non-Patriots teams were determined for winning the AFC and NFC Championship from current odds.

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And, assuming that America doesn't miss the Patriots so much in the interim that they invite them back for the Super Bowl, these are the probabilities for the Super Bowl 2020 Championship.

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This patented nonlinear odds-to-probs methodology was outlined for a hypothetical two-outcome event in the thread: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/.

 

[Dason]

Green Bay only at 9%? The model clearly needs to be refined.

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

Another playoff round in the book ... four teams and three games remaining. Here's the projected probabilities...

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See any anomalies? While the model is sound, the market's perception of the future clearly needs to be refined.

Now, back to the numbers ... c'mon, from their Conference Championship odds-to-probs, the implied probability of a Packers/Titans Super Bowl is a measly 1%..?!? (0.107*0.097) Wish I lived in a state with legal sportsbooks ... maybe I'll move when Tom does.

And now for something completely ridiculous...

The betting house helpfully notes that odds can be offered for "other teams on request", which would include Cleveland, presumably.​

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

Just today, I caught a glimpse of the news, and noticed that the NCAA FBS is having their Championship game tonight in New Awlins (or however you're supposed to say it).

Viewers were told that it's a HUGE game for "hometown LSU", and if they win, it could be the "biggest win in LSU football history", wow. Let's take a look at the implied probabilities:

Geaux, Tigers!!!​

And, presumably, when the Tigers win (either one), drunken bettors will be wandering around the French Quarter, demanding "Show us your chits!"

Laissez les bons temps rouler...