NFL postseason probabilities

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Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
#1
#1
This is a continuation of thread…

With the Patriots being cruelly eliminated from the playoffs, much to the delight of others, at least I have my numbers to watch and provide entertainment.

The nonlinear odds-to-probability derivations for the remaining non-Patriots teams were determined for winning the AFC and NFC Championship from current odds.

Conf.champs,Week.2.jpg​

And, assuming that America doesn't miss the Patriots so much in the interim that they invite them back for the Super Bowl, these are the probabilities for the Super Bowl 2020 Championship.

SB.Week.2..2020.jpg​

This patented nonlinear odds-to-probs methodology was outlined for a hypothetical two-outcome event in the thread: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/.
 
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N

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
#4
#4
Another playoff round in the book ... four teams and three games remaining. Here's the projected probabilities...

NFL.SB,Week.3.jpg​

See any anomalies? While the model is sound, the market's perception of the future clearly needs to be refined.

Now, back to the numbers ... c'mon, from their Conference Championship odds-to-probs, the implied probability of a Packers/Titans Super Bowl is a measly 1%..?!? (0.107*0.097) Wish I lived in a state with legal sportsbooks ... maybe I'll move when Tom does.

And now for something completely ridiculous...

Brady.team,2020,0-1.jpg
The betting house helpfully notes that odds can be offered for "other teams on request", which would include Cleveland, presumably.
​
--------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]--------

As PatriotNation turns to patriot ration with the Coronavirus community lockdown, our hero takes a bullet for the country, nay, the world...

​

Godspeed. Hope to see you in the playoffs.
...

UPDATE … Restless Tom Terrific is testing the boundaries in his new environment (4/21).

Patriot H8ers must be thrilled at the apparent dismantling of the dour unrelenting Belichick dynasty, what with the star players packing up and moving out, from the mindful Bay State to the Tampa Bay state-of-mind (4/22). Sad.
 
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N

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
#5
#5
Just today, I caught a glimpse of the news, and noticed that the NCAA FBS is having their Championship game tonight in New Awlins (or however you're supposed to say it).

Viewers were told that it's a HUGE game for "hometown LSU", and if they win, it could be the "biggest win in LSU football history", wow. Let's take a look at the implied probabilities:

NCAA-LSU,0-1.jpg
Geaux, Tigers!!!​

And, presumably, when the Tigers win (either one), drunken bettors will be wandering around the French Quarter, demanding "Show us your chits!"

Laissez les bons temps rouler...
 
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N

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
#6
#6
The stage is set for the Big Show, with KC the solid favorite.

SB,0-1.jpg​

And, in the interest of completeness/anyone caring, here's the probabilities for the Pro Bowl, which utilizes players that didn't make the Big Show (above).

Pro.Bowl,0-1.jpg​

The Pro Bowl is expected to be an evenly-matched affair, with both squads dealing with considerable uncertainty beyond even their helmets' colors and logos.

Pro.Bowl.diversity,0-1.jpg
Go, affiliation-based select-side team! ​
 
N

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
#7
#7
Checked out wazzup in the world of odds the other day, and saw that this thing 'politics' is trending.

Twas a bit surprising, but it seems that America is ready for some Bolshevik action, come Gametime 2020.

Dem.2020,2-24-20.jpg​

Whoa .. don't you love it when longshots trend awesome..?!? The whole 'plucky underdog' thing playing out... can't get enough of that Narrative, nor can most Americans.
 
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hlsmith

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#8
#8
Nonlinear_Zero-Sum said:
Just today, I caught a glimpse of the news, and noticed that the NCAA FBS is having their Championship game tonight in New Awlins (or however you're supposed to say it).

Viewers were told that it's a HUGE game for "hometown LSU", and if they win, it could be the "biggest win in LSU football history", wow. Let's take a look at the implied probabilities:


Geaux, Tigers!!!​

And, presumably, when the Tigers win (either one), drunken bettors will be wandering around the French Quarter, demanding "Show us your chits!"

Laissez les bons temps rouler...
Click to expand...
You are supposed to say every possible syllable, new or-lee-ahn-ss.
 
hlsmith

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#9
#9
Glad to see you are enjoying your odds data. Does Putin self-ascribe to bolshevism - if so Russian interference may seem misguided and unilateral. Perhaps people are questioning how we have the highest GDP, but something like 26M people dont have health insurance and those that do have insurance have outcomes no where near other leading countries. Our babies shouldnt be dying at the rate that they do. Not a polictical comment just pointing toward data. Political data is typically based on monte carlo simulations, how about your american football predictions?
 
hlsmith

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#12
#12
I don't follow football, but I have seen the South Park episode about the 'spice'. Which was fairly funny. Interesting enough I live in a state where betting is legal, but have never contemplated making a wager. The house always wins in the long run. I listened to an interesting piece awhile back how the Massachusetts (I think) state lottery could be beat and they knew it. But they also knew they paid out after the state gots its piece, so even if people could consistent win the lottery the state still generated a revenue of sorts. So dudes at MIT among others started gaming the system.
 
N

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
#13
#13
Thanks for invoking South Park ... they certainly understand the nature of zero-sum monatomic relationships:
...hey, wait ... Bernie/Brady 2020 ... Dream Ticket, bro..!!!


Once one conquers the concept of monatomia, they can then grasp the significance of atomic interactions.

--------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]-------

* Since the term apparently doesn’t exist, 'treble monatomic' will be defined as three elements combined into a singular zero-sum entity.

The existing handy term monatomic refers to considering two outcomes or elements as a single zero-sum entity, where there is a single relationship for outcomes A and B, which can described as a single simple ratio: A/B, a rational number which then can be inversed, of course (specific metric not important at this point).

Treble monatomic considers three elements as a single zero-sum entity, where there is the more complex relationship of outcomes A, B and C, which can be described by three different ratios: A/B, A/C, and B/C, all rational numbers that can be inversed, as well. The use of the term treble refers to the number of relevant ratios, which is same as the number of elements in this case, but that’s only true for three zero-sum elements ... with four monatomic elements, the number of ratios is 6 ... with 5 elements, it's 10, so the number of relevant ratios grows arithmetically with the number of elements.

In many two-team sporting events -- such as soccer -- either Team A or Team B could win, or there could be a tie or draw, where neither team wins. So the treble monatomic relationship can be shown as the following (order not important), joined by other examples that are less ambiguous, such as a horse race, or more ambiguous in being defined by the state or status of the element or outcome, rather than with a clear-cut score at the end of a game:
  • Team A / Draw / Team B
  • Horse A / Horse B / Horse C
  • Black / Grey / White
  • Right / Grey / Wrong
  • Yes / Grey / No
  • Yes / Maybe / No
  • My way / Highway / Let's talk about this later...
  • Protein / Fat / Carbohydrates
The dynamics of treble monatomic relationships would vary widely. In a soccer game, a transition from Team A winning to Team B winning would need to go through the Draw state (Team A <> Draw <> Team B). In contrast, in a rugby game (where points are scored in units of 2, 3 or 5), the lead could change hands several times, but a late score by the trailing team knots up the tally, the whistle blows and the game ends in a Draw. With the theoretical horse race, the elements are less interdependent. The other less-crisply defined treble monatomic relationships are much more amorphous, more uncertain and probably more interesting.
 
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