# Possions Distribution Help

#### vexel77

##### New Member
So I am trying to calculate the odds of a fight going over 1,5 rounds and also under 1,5 rounds. The fight lasts a total of three rounds and after the three rounds are completed it goes to a judges decision. The fight can end in any of the three rounds; I know the following;

1) The percentage chance of an average fight ending in each of the three rounds and also the percentage chance of an average fight going to decision.
2) For this specific fight; the actual percentage chance of it going to decision.

Average Fight %'s:
Rd 1) 26.88%
Rd 2) 19.02%
Rd 3) 8.38%
Decision: 45.72%

This Fight %'s:
Decision: 37.50%
Not Decision: 62.50%

I want to produce accurate percentage estimations for the below market:

Over 1.5 Rounds: x%
Under 1.5 Rounds: y%

I have no statistical background, from what I've read searching around I think the poission distribution may be the way to go? If someone could point me in the direction of some learning materials that would help solve this problem I would be forever in your debt.

Many thanks in advance for anytime taken to read this and if I am making a mistake of any kind if someone could correct me that would be brilliant. Thank you.