probability formula

#1
Hello,
I would like to know the formula that would allow me to do the following;

Assume;
1. 200 total events occur in 100 days (ie; 2 events per day)
2. Total events sum is made up where a = 60, b = 100 and c = 40.

For each day, I want to know (the probability) of the event was from which combination of a, b, or c based upon their percentages to the whole (200).

Thanks
 

hlsmith

Omega Contributor
#3
If events are independent, any event has a 30%, 50% and 20% probability of being from a, b, c, respectively. Can you rephrase your question, if this does not answer it.
 
#5
I apologize for the confusion, as I am uncertain how the 200 displays factors in with the 100 days and percentages.


Lets say there are 3 cities (a. b & C.)that hold fireworks displays.

They are 200 displays that occur in 100 days.

The respective probabilities from where the fireworks are coming from would be a 30%, b 50% and c 20%, but that is based upon an average 2 displays/day for 100 days.

What formula would give a correct distribution that takes into account all three factors;displays, days and percentages?

Do I need to consider all three factors?
Does this make sense?
 

Outlier

TS Contributor
#6
I think max & min values for each display, day & percentage can be given, but it is beyond me at the moment. In any case, write a program that runs through every possibility and use this to check your hunch.