To anyone who can help,
I am trying to ascertain the likelihood that the UK will experience a power shortage this winter, ie, the probable amount of time that the UK energy production capacity will be less than demand. I have one constant and two variables. The constant is fixed energy capacity  derived from sources such as coal plants, nuclear plants, etc. Then there is a variable capacity  wind. Total capacity is therefore fixed capacity plus wind capacity. The other variable is demand.
I have a data set that gives the wind capacity and demand for every 5 minutes of the past 8 years. From this I have been able to establish the probable frequency distribution of wind capacity and demand capacity for this coming winter, attached in a pdf. How do I calculate the probability that for any given 5min time stamp the wind capacity will be sufficiently small and the demand sufficiently high that total capacity is smaller than demand?
what is the probability that F+w<d, where:
F  constant
w  unevenly distributed variable between wmin and wmax
d 
I am trying to ascertain the likelihood that the UK will experience a power shortage this winter, ie, the probable amount of time that the UK energy production capacity will be less than demand. I have one constant and two variables. The constant is fixed energy capacity  derived from sources such as coal plants, nuclear plants, etc. Then there is a variable capacity  wind. Total capacity is therefore fixed capacity plus wind capacity. The other variable is demand.
I have a data set that gives the wind capacity and demand for every 5 minutes of the past 8 years. From this I have been able to establish the probable frequency distribution of wind capacity and demand capacity for this coming winter, attached in a pdf. How do I calculate the probability that for any given 5min time stamp the wind capacity will be sufficiently small and the demand sufficiently high that total capacity is smaller than demand?
what is the probability that F+w<d, where:
F  constant
w  unevenly distributed variable between wmin and wmax
d 
unevenly distributed variable between dmin and dmax
F+wmin<dmax
F+wmin<dmax
Any help would be very much appreciated.
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