# Probabilty or reduction in likelihood?

#### RON PURPURA

##### New Member
Hello all
1st time user of this forum. I will freely admit I am not very adept with statistics and this is really the 1st part of my question please bear with me.

I work in a health system and I am trying to figure out probability or likelihood of an event being able to occur

I have attached a PDF copy of my spreadsheet to help illustrate what I am trying to get across. The spreadsheet reflects typical appointment times for a provider on any given day. In scenario 2-6 I am pointing out that there are times set aside on a providers schedule for what we call TELEMED visits ( which mean no on site appts will be seen)

Relative to medical providers, a typical schedule in an office would consist of 15 minute time slots for 4 hours per session ( AM and PM) for each provider
Appointments are structured with a 15 min common denominator: i.e. office visit = 15 min, a physical or new patient visit are typically 30 mins, and in some cases providers may use 45 mins for consults.

What I am trying to calculate is what is the likelihood or probability ( not sure if these are the right terms) of being able to schedule an elongated appt ( Physical, New Patient, Consults ) as the schedule fills up with 15 min visits ( office visit) as the day progresses in a session

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#### obh

##### Well-Known Member
Hi Ron,

Do you mean if you want to schedule a 45 min appointment on random hour what is the probability that it is not blocked by other appointment"?
What is the goal of this calculation?

#### RON PURPURA

##### New Member
Hello OBH
What I am trying to do is to calculate the reduction in probabilty over time that a provider would be able to see a patient for an elongated appt type. For example, The provider has a specific # of appt slots during a session. As time goes by, the schedule is filled with many office visits ( 15 min ) and sporadically placed throughout the session( I.e 8:15 , 9:30 , 10:45) As each of these office visits populate the schedule , there is a reduction in the ability to schedule the longer appt types. The goal of this calculation is to find the reduction in probability/likelihood ( I think I am using the right term) that a provider will be able to schedule an elongated appt ( 30 or 45 min appt) as the schedule fills up with 15 min appointments. I sure hope this makes sense. Thanks so much for the help

#### obh

##### Well-Known Member
Hi Ron,

You may just calculate the occupation percentage. for each day/week

If you still want to calculate the probability that a random hour will be free it is a similar calculation.
For example, you calculate t1, the number of 15 minutes period in the relevant period. For example, if it is 8h a day it is 8/0.25=32.
Now you calculate the total of free slots for example x=20
thank the probability to get empty slot will be 20/32
you will get different probability per 15 or 30 or 45 meetings.

for example if you have 2 meetings 10:00-10:15, 10:30-10:45
10:15 will be free for 15 min appointment, but not free for 30 or 35 appointments

#### RON PURPURA

##### New Member
Hi Ron,

You may just calculate the occupation percentage. for each day/week

If you still want to calculate the probability that a random hour will be free it is a similar calculation.
For example, you calculate t1, the number of 15 minutes period in the relevant period. For example, if it is 8h a day it is 8/0.25=32.
Now you calculate the total of free slots for example x=20
thank the probability to get empty slot will be 20/32
you will get different probability per 15 or 30 or 45 meetings.

for example if you have 2 meetings 10:00-10:15, 10:30-10:45
10:15 will be free for 15 min appointment, but not free for 30 or 35 appointments

Thank you so very much OBH. Greatly appreciate your time and effort