Problem finding a fitting statistical test

Hi. I'm conducting a study, where i am evaluating valuations of companies written by students in their master theses'. In these papers they are giving a target price for a company/stock. One of the things i'm trying to do is figuring out whether students are "cheating" by adjusting their target prices towards analysts consensus estimates. So i have gathered data of analysts individual target prices and consensus estimate for each stock valuation written by a student, but i am not sure how to test whether they are "cheating" or not. I have for instance estimated that 30 % of their target prices are within 10 % analysts consensus estimates. Are there any statistical test where i could somehow estimate how many of the students target prices should be that close to the consensus estimates if it were by a random process?