- Thread starter Dick Cassle
- Start date

I could not come up with an analytical solution and I was hoping someone else could point me in the right direction. I will probably end up using a Monte Carlo simulation as you suggested.

Im thinking that if you conceptualize a play as rolling dice until 1 or 2 (ie equal chance of winning a play is 50%) then you winning by the yth play should be negbin(.5,9), as i recall? Opponent wins only if y > 19. Does that sound like productive line of argument? I haven't actually run the numbers on that so might be way off the mark here.

Rcode looking promising agreement with monte carlo above:

1 - pnbinom(9, 9, .5, lower.tail=T)

??

Rcode looking promising agreement with monte carlo above:

1 - pnbinom(9, 9, .5, lower.tail=T)

??

Last edited:

Rcode looking promising agreement with monte carlo above:

1 - pnbinom(9, 9, .5, lower.tail=T)

??