Research project: Method advice

Hello everyone,

I've been a lurker for quite a while (and I owe much of my stats knowledge to this forum) but this time, I have a question myself.

I'm using two datasets (Erik Voeten's General UN Assembly Voting Data here and the MID database here).

I'm trying to look for the relationship between votes on Middle East & disarmament (Voeten's data set has specific codes for both) and the incidence of conflict in the Middle East.

What would you use to parse those relationships out? ANOVA? Granger? And what else? Like, what would you do if you were in my shoes? What would you look at?

Thank you so much, everyone. You're amazing.