Risk to Value Formula

#1
Thanks for looking at this post I am new here and not a math genius so I am not sure where to even put this question.


I am working on a MLB baseball betting strategy. I have ran some numbers and came to this conclusion need help to solidify it.

I bet a series of 3 or 4 games until I get a win never more than 4

Over the course of the MLB season so far I am 89-3. With three losses being series which I never one a game in 3 or 4 game series. If I win game 1 of a 3 or 4 game series it is over and I move on.

No I have three bet types and they are listed below.


#1
Game #1 25
Game #2 25 + Money risked on game #1
Game #3 25 + Money risked on game #1,2
Game #4 25 + Money risked on game #1,2,3

#2
Game #1 25
Game #2 50 + Money risked on game #1
Game #3 100 + Money risked on game #1,2
Game #4 200 + Money risked on game #1,2,3

#3
Game #1 25
Game #2 75 (25+50+ Money risked on game #1)
Game #3 175 (100+50+25+ Money risked on game #1,2)
Game #4 375 (200+100+50+25+ Money risked on game #1,2,3)

to determine how much money is risked on a game. I use this formula

bet amount (25 for game #1)*negative line or / positive line (games are either -145 or -115 or +110 or +122)then /100 (negative line) or *100(positive line).
http://www.bettingkings.com/major-league-baseball-betting-mlb/
Above more on money lines.

My goal is to figure out which system provides the most value for the risk.


using system #1
89 Wins - 2225
3 loses - 1220.54
Profit - 1004.46

using system #2
89 Wins - 3400
3 loses - 2069.5
Profit - 1330.5

using system #3
89 Wins - 4550
3 loses - 2885.02
Profit - 1664.98



more stats if it helps

out of the 89 wins
62 on game #1
17 on game #2
10 on Game #3


All I am trying to figure out is out of these three betting systems what is the best is it worth it to risk more to win more or is it a -ev play?

IF I did not explain it well please let me know and I will try some more.


Thanks,

Matt