The Future of Clinical Trials Biostatistics - Bayesian?

[PRCarpenter]

I have noticed a trend with hiring managers to vault candidates that are well versed in Bayesian analysis to the top. This is not necessarily because someone will sink or swim based on their allegiance to Bayes, these managers may not even have implemented any of the methodology at all yet. But they know one thing. They would like to. Adaptive Design and the idea of conducting interim analyses come up quite often.

What do you think? Will Clinical Trials become a Bayesian rather than Gaussian endeavor? Forgive my lack of statistical knowledge, but why is Bayesian methodology catching the eye of managers who do not currently employ Bayesian methods in their analyses?

Thanks!

Paul

 

[hlsmith]

I am not versed in bayesian approaches but know many people feel it is ituitively logical, being that frequentist put the cart infront of the horse but bayesians put the horse infront of the cart. This can be conveyed by whether you let the data dictate the distribution or vice oversaw. I am sure I am just muddying the waters. Most feel many bayesian approaches are closer to the truth at times and importantly use prior information in the statistics.

I could see a bigger push for the use of bayesian approaches in rcts but I think what investigators and monitoring boards use needs to become more standardized and the general readers of results have to become more comfortable interpreting them, critical mass.