I recently found a deer tick on me (had been there for several days). I have no symptoms. My Dr. says I could ignore it or take a course of antibiotics. Given that the probability that this tick carried lyme is 35% and given that the probability of having Lyme in the absence of symptoms is 50%, what is the probability that I have Lyme and therefore should take the meds? I tried formulating this with Bayes (or is it merely the product of these probabilities .50*.35=17.5%) but I'm not sure I have it right and I need to make a decision today. I'd like to know the answer and how it was derived. Thanks!