What does a mean probability mean?

#1
Hi all.

If each case in a dataset is assigned a probability of a certain event having occurred (based on their own individual data) and I calculate an average probability of the event having occurred, does the average probability equal the estimated proportion of cases in which that event occurred?

So if I have 10 people, each assigned a probability of having read a book, and the average probability is .06, does that mean an estimated 6% of people have read a book? or why not?

On the one hand it seems weird. On the other hand if every child has a .5 chance of being female (before birth), we would expect aout half of children to be female.
 

hlsmith

Omega Contributor
#2
Hmm. Where exactly does the probability come from and how was it calculated?

Also do you have random sample or how does you sample look compared to the source population.