So I made a program to predict the outcome of baseball games, as either a W or a L for the home team. I want to know if my program and algorithm are actually having an effect or is it just luck. I thought at first that it would be the likelihood of seeing how many times I was correct and seeing how likely that was. For that, I thought to do .5^n where n is the number of correct predictions I got. But I feel like that is not the correct way to do it as teams do not always have 50/50 odds to win. Also, that felt incorrect because they may not all be in a row. So I thought that maybe I should do the number of times my odds lined up with betting odds. But I dont know what the probability of me getting withing 5% of the professional odds are.

My question is what would the null hypothesis be? Would it be based on # correct or # of times my odds lined up with the odds for that game?

My question is what would the null hypothesis be? Would it be based on # correct or # of times my odds lined up with the odds for that game?

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