Whats the probability that an Archaeologist finds a particular artifact.

[Dthurman]

Archaeologist has a project area 56 acres in size. Somewhere in the project area is a buried stone artifact 69cm×38cm×38cm ovular stone. An archaeologist will dig a 1 meter x 1 meter test unit randomly in the 56 acres. What are the chances that a single test unit will find the stone artifact?

 

[Dthurman]

This is a real life event that happened to me this last week.

 

[katxt]

Are you sure there is only one stone? kat

 

[Dthurman]

There is only one exactly like the one found. For this problem we can assume there is one and only one artifact in the entire 56 acre project.

 

[katxt]

The stone can be entirely in 1 square or partly in 2, 3 or even 4 squares. If we assume an average of 2 squares then the probability of finding it first go is about 2 in 560 000.

 

[Dthurman]

The stone can be entirely in 1 square or partly in 2, 3 or even 4 squares. If we assume an average of 2 squares then the probability of finding it first go is about 2 in 560 000.

Thank you. So not miraculous just very fortuitous. Appreciate your response.