Win rate and luck

#1
Hi everyone!

I'm not a math/stat guy at all (I'm a game player), so please be simple and thank you for your help, I appreciate it!

Does someone know how this guy got these results?
Can I get the "Win rate area" in Excel ? (see below)
(I would like to enter the # of games (= coin flips) and get the corresponding "Win rate area").
(Ideally, I would also like to be able to enter/change the "95%").

"Assuming that you have a true win rate of 50%, this table tells you within what area most players
(95% percent of the to be exact, 2,5 will have higher and 2,5 will have lower) win rates will end up based on luck alone."
https://forum.worldofwarships.eu/topic/76406-win-rate-and-luck/


Thanks!!!
 

Dason

Ambassador to the humans
#3
It looks like they're using the normal approximation to the binomial distribution to get their numbers though.
 
#4
Hi,

Thank you.

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find out by myself how to recreate the table.

I have tried "=BINOM.DIST(A1/2,A1,0.5,TRUE)" and got these values ?! :
50 0.556137586
100 0.539794619
200 0.52817424
500 0.517832323
1000 0.512612509
3000 0.507283049
5000 0.505641614
10000 0.503989323

Maybe I should try "=BINOM.DIST.RANGE(" but I don't really understand what values I should select... There's also =NORM.DIST( ?!
I have watched video on Youtube about "normal approximation to the binomial distribution" but they were too complicated for my brain to be honest.
Any help will be welcome.

Thanks!