My boss is looking for me to analyze data that we have an past projects and develop a "formula" that will tell how likely a future project is to be a success. We have defined what a success is, so looking at the past data I can find statistics on when projects are successful.

Now comes the hard part, developing the formula. I was reading some articles on how statistical prediction rules are very accurate, but I can't find anything on how to develop them. I'm not looking to do a super high level analysis, but I just want to do some math to show the odds of a project being a success based on certain parameters. Can anyone point me in the right direction? Thanks