Election 2020

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

In the 2019 UK general election, 48.02% of the total population voted and the percent age 0-18 appears likely in the region of 22%. It doesn't look like there was massive Postal Voting fraud in Texas?

I challenge you to show that correlation proves causation … between

a) the UK total-population voting percentage in 2019, factoring in the age 0-18 demographic, and​

b) the extent of the (non)massiveness of Postal Voting fraud in Texas.​

But thanks for providing the above data table, which could facilitate some insight into our 2020 Electoral mysteries (see charts). Our esteemed statistical-analysis expert at NLZS Enterprises -- Doctor Anna Nahmally -- provides commentary below.

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Dr Anna Nahmally expounds on the study:​

“In our analysis of Electoral ‘battleground states’, we discarded the suggestion that UK 2019 voter turnout is relevant, as we did that Nebraska, of all places, belonged in this subset. To normalize the data from the post above, we determined the ratio of the relative voter turnout in each state and that state’s population under 18, below the legal age (interestingly, there were votes recorded after the expiration date of both ballots and voters, which are incorporated with this data).​

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This ‘TO/U18 ratio’ was plotted against the ratio of Biden and Trump votes recorded in each state. With that data set, we did find a mild correlation between the relative ratio of the percentages within the population voting over those Under 18, plotted against the relative ratio of votes for Biden and Trump by state. Higher turnout/U18 ratio clearly favors Team Biden.​

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Additionally, we did notice that Team Biden was significantly better at managing the vote, as to not 'waste votes' above the winner-take-all threshold, as is the rule in the Electoral College. The margin in battleground states (also known as 'swing states') won by Team Biden was less than 2% in 80% of those states, with 40% of states being well less than 1% margin. The average winning margin in battleground states for Team Biden was a tad under 2% (that average being less than the lowest Team Trump state), while the average Team Trump winning margin was nearly a whopping 9% … this constitutes a 4.5X advantage in vote efficiency for Team Biden in these critical states.​

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We hope that this type of Election 2020 statistical analysis, with corresponding observations and even conclusions, will be conveyed to the American public by major US news outlets ... like CNN, NY Times, Twitter maybe STAT News..."​

NOTE: Anna Nahmally normally ‘swings both ways’, but in this case -- as with many other incidences during Election 2020 -- she’s been uncharacteristically faithful. And, for some reason, she's recently been using a shampoo that leaves her hair smelling incredible ... wonder what that's about.​

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[More insights below]​

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[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

From Dr Anna Nahmally's files...

A veteran pollster notes that in Election 2020, “Biden underperformed Hillary Clinton [in 2016] in every major metro area around the country, save for Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta and Philadelphia [see previous post] ... Robert Barnes, the foremost election analyst, observes in these 'big cities in swing states run by Democrats…the vote even exceeded the number of registered voters.'” Surprisingly, Biden also garnered more popular votes than Obama did during his historic 2008 election, against a weak GOP candidate (11/8).

Do you believe in ‘magic’..?

• 5 More Ways Joe Biden Magically Outperformed Election Norms (11/23).
• Twenty magical alleged Election 2020 aspects (11/30), including a take from an experienced gambler with a nose for the-fix-is-in (11/14), signaled by Fox’s premature call of Biden winning Arizona, which flipped the odds in short order, overnight.

....

A rational sleuth looks at the odd vote-count patterns in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia, using metrics of 1) the difference in absolute vote counts for Biden and Trump (X-Y), and 2) the log-ratio of vote counts -- X/Y -- for Biden and Trump (11/24):

Ratios allow us to spot a potential sign of fraud ... because those who watch and participate in elections tend not to think in these terms, if there is fraud, they’re much less likely to have covered their tracks in this respect.​

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This election represents an extraordinary and unique opportunity for election integrity analysts and the application of statistical fraud detection research, as it is likely the first national election in American history, at the very least, where the general public has had access to time-series election data.​

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[Chart annotated for clarity]​

BOTTOM LINE: The four most-anomalous 'data dumps' in the wee hours after Election 2020 provided the margin of Electoral victory.​

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Statistical analysis of Michigan absentee votes seem to suggest computer manipulation (11/27). In addition to the unlikely high Biden/Trump ratio of absentee votes in certain areas, the striking differences in D-vs-R support in comparing the 2016 and 2020 elections, the inclusion of 227K ballots sent and received on the same day, ballots from 117 year-olds, etc etc … in counties bordering Detroit, the ratios of absentee ballots for Biden and Trump -- which should be somewhat independent metrics -- were strangely consistent across voting precinct in 2020:

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[Chart annotated for clarity]​

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Meanwhile in Pennsylvania...
Having trailed Trump almost 1-to-2 during in-person Election Day voting, Biden garnered an over 3-to-1 advantage in absentee ballots, or about a 6X turnaround in relative support (11/30). Across political affiliations, Biden’s tally vs Trump in absentee ballots was reportedly 19-to-1 among Democrats and 4-to-1 among Independents … Joe even garnered an unlikely 21% of Republican mail-in ballots, despite PA exit polls of GOP voters favoring Biden at only 8%. (Apparently, the mail-it-in strategy of Biden's subterranean 'referendum' campaign paid off.) Additionally, in 2016, mail-in ballots in PA had a rejection rate of around 1% ... while in 2020, almost 10X as many mail-in ballots were submitted, but had a rejection rate of only 0.04%, or 1/27th that of 2016. This is despite the FiveThirtyEight estimate that first-time absentee-voter ballots generally have a rejection rate 3X those of experienced mail-in voters ... 'tis all such a mystery.

Meanwhile in Nothing-to-See-Here non-news...
Hey, this wacky connection is amazingly coincidental, but hasn’t been picked up by the American mainstream media: A month before Election 2020, the Chinese government may have bought for $400 million a controlling interest in Dominion Voting Systems, the manufacturers of the controversial voting machines, with suspect proprietary software, used in battleground states (12/1; more here from another fringe source). Of course, our prestige MSM had better things to do in October than uncover this unimportant minutiae.

In more totally coincidental N2SH non-news, Kamala Harris’s official photographer is conveniently also a Dominion technician and vote-counter in Georgia (11/29), which “creates a massive conflict of interest that violates state election law”. Well, duh, but certainly not in a newsworthy way.

Well, what do you know … media bias and censorship really work! (11/24) From a survey of Biden voters in Election 2020 battleground states...

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Both Pfizer and Moderna delayed their reporting of very promising COVID-vaccine progress until after Election Day (12/6). Pfizer actually shut down its lab work to avoid the required reporting protocol, while Moderna of France was told that they needed more test data on minority subjects.

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Knowing that future historians and statisticians will look back at the awesome incredibility of Election 2020, Dr Anna Nahmally savors insightful perspectives from earlier times ... such as from 1814, when Pierre-Simon Laplace argued that

The more extraordinary the event, the greater the need of its being supported by strong proofs, and​

The probability of the falsehood increases in the measure that the deed becomes more extraordinary, and​

The probability of the error or of the falsehood of the witness becomes as much greater as the fact attested is more extraordinary, and finally​

There are things so extraordinary that nothing can balance their improbability.​

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Leaving aside contentious granular aspects of Election 2020 (see all, above), give LaPlace’s intellectual exercise a spin on this could-happen-to-anyone home-safety anecdote (12/3): "President-elect Joe Biden on Thursday revealed that he broke his foot tripping on a rug after a shower as he chased one of his dogs and grabbed its tail". Meanwhile, Kamala sees an opportunity to puppy-up.

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Although Election 2020 was incredibly squeaky clean -- ask anyone in the media -- and any suggestions otherwise are conspiratorial crazytalk, worthy of social-media ban ... here’s what you need to do to rig an election (12/1), totally hypothetically, of course.

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[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

Election 2024: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...

Biden and Harris have a combined probability of 17.5% in Election 2024, while Trump, his kids, and Pence combine to 12.7% (from Betfair).

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Only those potential candidates breaking 1.0% probability are listed. The 'ALL OTHER', with nearly half the summed probability, consist of 115 potential candidates from various walks of life, but strangely doesn't include Rachel Maddow nor Tucker Carlson.

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[Dason]

nor Tucker Carlson.

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Thank God

 

[hlsmith]

Yeah, Tucker Carlson seems like one of those muck fichigan t-shirts.

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

Yeah, Tucker Carlson seems like one of those muck fichigan t-shirts.

...which might lead an impartial observer to wonder “Are Americans rational?” (11/30)

 

[Dason]

...which might lead an impartial observer to wonder “Are Americans rational?” (11/30)

I'm not seeing how you're making that leap

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

I'm not seeing how you're making that leap

…accept the mystery.

Other mysteries include:

• That a constitutional government and its corporate supporters would concern themselves with verifying ideas ... but NOT votes (12/9), since "ideas are not a legitimate function of government. Governments serve the people through [fair] elections, not ideas".
• Despite Jeff Bezos’s mainstream-media company championing mail-in voting, his package-delivery company Amazon still insists on old-school in-person voting on unionization (1/24).
• Why empty virtue-signaling is everywhere these days (2/1, paywall).
• Remember when the War on Terror ended and the War on Populism began? (2/10)
• Why did the ‘Capitol riot’ terrify the Elite so? ... luckily, we have a HS student from Massachusetts to explain (2/25).
• Russia:Trump :: China:Biden? ... [crickets chirping] (2/25)
• Is there herd immunity to Wokeness..? (3/7)
• When will this new era of statesmanship be funny? … “Biden’s pleasantly boring presidency has been a welcome return to normality” (3/9). And, turns out, this normality is a total downer, trending unboringly unpleasant.
• The state of our Head of State's head (3/9) … literally no comment, as in nothing actually said.
• Why in an asymmetric political situation, the weaker party needs to stay composed and multi-layered, while side-stepping provocations … to win by not losing (3/9). Gandhi and MLK, Jr would approve.
• Why it’s never #TimesUp, with the correct politics (3/12).
• When are the troops leaving DC..? How’s never? (3/15)
• What do President Biden and the 'American empire' have in common? (3/15)
• Did WaPo ‘Fake News’ impact the Georgia Senatorial runoffs? (3/15) ‘Find the fraud’, indeed.
• Why do American media outlets feel compelled to coordinate their narratives and even buzzwords? (2018 video, but nothing’s changed)
• Why is scrutinizing the “eligibility of each ballot cast” important in critical elections? (4/9)
• Is the religion of Wokeness replacing Christianity in America, among nine other New Normal 'new ideas'..? (4/11)
• What is propaganda, and why would CNN’s Technical Director convey the misinformation that CNN allegedly had a focused misinformation campaign to get Trump out of office in Election 2020? (4/13; more here and here; then there's Project Veritas O’Kommentary ) … CNN: ‘The Most Trusted Name in News’, indeed.
• As COVID-19 dissipates, what will be the next crisis to more effectively derail ‘American exceptionalism’? (4/15)
• What has that whole ‘COVID-19 thing’ been about anyway? Digitalism for control (4/17), perchance..? Quacking like a duck, it does seem that it’s certainly proceeding to the plan … then we can smoothly transition to climate change as the cudgel (4/23).
• Jesus … what happened to us? (4/21) Then again, perhaps ‘intense fragmentation’ can lead to positive developments ... but only well after the empire dissolves, and something new evolves (paywall, 4/19; reprinted here).
• Why are our elites going crazy? (4/19)
• What is now a threat to the West? Global warming? China? Russia? (a perspective from Down Under, 4/26; more here) Here's another parallel threat to the West (4/13).
• What if people worldwide have had it with their governments? (4/26) As Einstein noted, “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity … and I’m not too sure by the universe.”
• Where would Election 2020 be without ‘altered states’..? (4/26)
• Could it be that 1) our Election 2020 and 2) coordinated COVID measures across countries were just necessary steps of synching our Deep State with the Global Deep State? (4/27, ‘Deep State’ background here) The question remains: Whose Deep State is in charge?
• Do Americans want to be addicted to government? …and other reflections on Biden’s SOTU address (4/29; more here [WSJ paywall] and here).
• Why did retired French military personnel, including twenty generals, issue a joint signed statement to the Macron government that (American-exported) ‘anti-racism’ could tear apart their country’s cherished Fraternité, leading to drastic consequences? (4/29) They foresee fomented societal division and government cowardice eventually leading to a civil war with “thousands of deaths, of which you [the government] will bear responsibility”. President Macron’s government wants to discipline them with ‘insurrection charges’ … where have we heard that before? Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose…

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[Dason]

I don't get you. Oh well.

 

[noetsi]

Americans have limited historical knowledge which leads them astray often. Nothing that is happening now is new in US history. If you look at southern, and to some extent plains states governments, in the US from 1880 to 1950 you will find other examples of Trump like behavior on the left and right. It will accelerate in the US on the right and left in future decades. Significant economic problems, major class differences, and very different values are driving it. Americans like to say individuals are responsible for something driven by systematic forces.

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

I don't get you. Oh well.

Perhaps the mystery has been accepted.

Americans have limited historical knowledge which leads them astray often. Nothing that is happening now is new in US history. If you look at southern, and to some extent plains states governments, in the US from 1880 to 1950 you will find other examples of Trump like behavior on the left and right. It will accelerate in the US on the right and left in future decades. Significant economic problems, major class differences, and very different values are driving it. Americans like to say individuals are responsible for something driven by systematic forces.

Thanks for the thoughtful commentary. Historical precedents in the US have limited applicability nowadays since the fundamental dynamics have changed so much over the years. Government spending -- and hence control over the US economy -- is now much higher than in the past (excluding WWII), and it continues to grow (see chart).

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Throughout history, the primary task of government has been the protection of its people and their property (more here, 4/26). Now, our government is much more concerned with enforcing ‘social justice’ – equal outcomes among the populace … which is really Marxism, and we know how well those experiments have worked out. In addition, our government teams up with private interests – especially media and Big Tech – in their social-justice crusade, while also ensuring that the right politicos get into office. When the wrong people get into office, like with the Election 2016 surprise, you can see how they react, pulling out all stops.

 

[noetsi]

I don't think many historians or political scientist [I was one long ago] would agree that "Historical precedents in the US have limited applicability nowadays since the fundamental dynamics have changed so much over the years. " In fact the US increasingly resembles the political realities of pre-World War II America. After 1940 significant differences were papered over as the US had general prosperity (until 1973 when income gains slowed significantly for most) and faced first a world war then the Cold War.

With no perceived enemy any longer and huge increases in income disparity (combined with income stagnation for much of the population) we are returning to pre-1940 values. The declining legitimacy of the United States government greatly reinforces this. A famous writer once said that after the Civil War we went from the United States (plural) to the United States (once country). I think we are going back that way.

But the issues are far far too complex to discus here. Its a vast literature and I am trying to be a geek not a political scientist these days.

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

Dr Anna Nahmally of NLZS Enterprises and others have been wondering…

Q: Is Statistics an art or a science?

First, let’s look at the term's definitions, from Wikipedia…

Art is a diverse range of human activities involving the creation of visual, auditory or performing artifacts (artworks), which express the creator's imagination, conceptual ideas, or technical skill, intended to be appreciated primarily for their beauty or emotional power.​

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Science (from the Latin word scientia, meaning "knowledge") is a systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe.​

As a science, Statistics – in the service of “knowledge” -- would require carefully controlled tests with evenly recorded data for analysis. This is the cornerstone of scientific and engineering studies. On the other hand, if the tests are not controlled and the data only selectively recorded, analyzed and presented, then Statistics becomes an art.

Now, let’s look at the derivation of the word statistics, from the Wikipedia entry on the History of statistics:

Statistics, in the modern sense of the word, began evolving in the 18th century in response to the novel needs of industrializing sovereign states. The evolution of statistics was, in particular, intimately connected with the development of European states following the peace of Westphalia (1648), and with the development of probability theory, which put statistics on a firm theoretical basis … the term "statistics" designated the systematic collection of demographic and economic data by states.​

Note that the word statistics includes the term statist, someone that favors statism: the principle or policy of concentrating extensive economic, political, and related controls in the state at the cost of individual liberty.

So, it’s fair to say that Statistics using uncontrolled testing and selectively recorded data – especially in a way that favors statism – should be considered works of art. Regardless, one could just rationalize that the end justifies the means.

Perhaps some artistic graphics (below) might clarify matters.

How statisticians, in the service of statism, view Election 2020…

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…while, in reality, things perhaps aren’t so pretty.

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UPDATE (4/11): The very definition of applied statism ... 100 corporate execs come together and publicly condemn proposed state voting laws that would require basic security, like providing ID … like just about everything transacted that matters.​

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-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Speaking of relevant statistics … during his (mostly virtual) Presidential campaign, Joe Biden promised to get the Coronavirus pandemic under control. Looks like his magic is apparently already working, worldwide! (2/25)

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Smooth global collusion coordination? ... On the day that Joe Biden was inaugurated as president (1/20, see chart above), the World Health Organization changed the test standard for defining Covid cases, guaranteeing that far fewer 'cases' would be reported and thereby making a mockery of the previous 10 months data. This should facilitate our transition to the New Normal...

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[Dason]

Pretty simple solution: it's a science and an art.

 

[Nonlinear_Zero-Sum]

Pretty simple solution: it's a science and an art.

You’d given that argument even less consideration than the Supreme Court did with Texas v. Pennsylvania [Docket no. 22o155].

In the spirit of less-than-considerate...

• Despite having gotten Pfizer’s assistance, which had delayed their announcement of ‘vaccine good news’ resulting from Trump’s Operation Warp Speed until after Election 2020, Biden jabs stabs Pfizer in the back by waiving patent protection (5/7, embedded video clips of anti-vax Kamala, back when cool kids doubted the rush-to-market, because Science). More here, which “concludes that there will never again be another Operation Warp Speed if this plan goes through”. After all, profit margins save lives.
• “Did Media conspire with social media to CENSOR Joe/Hunter Biden Corruption Report?” (5/25) A wacky Brit actor is distressed that he finds himself agreeing with the NY Post, but only wants a “equal fair society … or set of decentralized societies,” more accurately.

 

[Dason]

k

 

[spunky]

Pretty simple solution: it's a science and an art.

And now I'd like to unveil my latest piece... The Solution Multiplicity of the Fleishman Polynomials.

Gib clap plz

 

[hlsmith]

There are many options and decision paths in stats, with most converging. A person just needs to be transparent about methods (e.g., hyperparameters) and contextual assumptions. It is not an art - statisticians just have autonomy and freedom to use whichever methods they know or prefer.

 

[noetsi]

I thought this thread was about probabilities. Now we are in my old stomping grounds, poly sci.

 

[noetsi]

There are many options and decision paths in stats, with most converging. A person just needs to be transparent about methods (e.g., hyperparameters) and contextual assumptions. It is not an art - statisticians just have autonomy and freedom to use whichever methods they know or prefer.

Structural equations and time series are art. The rest of stats may not be.