# Poker Club Probability of Winning Question

#### scalfdn

##### New Member
I need some help. I'm looking for how to calculate the odds\probability of a person winning in a poker club based on events that have already happened and the games left.
Attached is the current standings. The winner of the club is determined by the lowest overall points. Points are recorded by the place the player went out during that months tournament. (Busted out in 14 place gets you 14 point, down to 1 point first place)

I'm looking for a formula to post on my website that calculates the probability that a person will win. Again lowest points wins the seat in the WSOP main event.

July August September October November December January February March April May June
Dan 2 3 2 5 3 1 3 5
Jeff 4 5 6 4 2 3 6 12
JB 6 11 3 7 6 5 2 4
Jeremy 8 2 13 3 4 4 5 11
Nate 9 4 1 1 7 10 11 9
Mark 3 9 11 8 1 9 9 10
Barry 11 6 5 10 10 8 8 3
Tom 7 14 4 11 5 13 1 7
Hart 1 12 8 2 13 6 13 8
Rob 10 1 14 9 8 2 12 13
Ian 5 10 12 14 12 7 10 2
Doug 14 13 9 13 9 14 4 1
Tyler 12 7 10 6 11 12 14 6
Chad 13 8 7 12 14 11 7 14

#### scalfdn

##### New Member
Anyone? I like the policy of not helping unless you show effort but I'm not a student and clueless about this stuff. Just looking for help from the experts.

Is there anymore information I can add to this that would help? I think it would be like a golf match that is and there are four holes left. The only difference is the golfer could have infinite amount of swings vs. my situation where a player can only get 1-14 points added to the total. I understand looking at the data that current first place (Dan) has an 18 point lead with 4 tournaments left over the second place (jeff). Knowing that I understand Jeff would have to close the gap at an avg. of 5 points per tournament to catch Dan but how do I solve for the probability\odd of dan winning, jeff winning etc....

Even if you send me a link that could jump start me I will try and figure it out, but I'm not sure where to start.

#### ted00

##### New Member
Hi scalfdn, I'll try to add 2 cents:
Are you aware of "conditional" probabilities?