# Probability of Sporting Event Occurring

#### Regal88

##### New Member
Hello everyone

I am trying to establish whether it is possible (or appropriate) to calculate the probability of a sporting event occurring given the historic ratio of such event happening.

Let me explain a little more in detail - for the purpose of this exercise, I am discounting the fact that sporting events are influenced by numerous factors that are difficult to quantify and therefore would be difficult to incorporate into any calculation of probability.

Consider the following:

During a regular 38 game season, matches involving football (soccer) Team A have 3 or more goals in the game 75% of the time. When they play at home, 69% of games have 3 or more goals and when they play away, 82% of games have 3 or more goals.

Now consider their upcoming opponents - Team B. Overall, 50% of their games contain 3 or more goals. They also have 3 or more goals per game 50% of the time when they play at home and when they play away.

Team A are due to play Team B next week (Team A at home).

Is it possible to use the above probabilities in some way to indicate the chance that this game will contain 3 or more goals.

My research into possible appropriate calculations/theorems have lead me to read about Bayes' Theorem but I cannot seem to work out if the above scenario is applicable.

Any insight, suggestions would be greatly received.

If anyone is interested in why I pose such a question - I am designing a football statistics database and would like it to include a predictive element on upcoming fixtures.

Many thanks