Your question is basically the same as the post by Ronald U on the 16th:

"Estimating probability of malignancy in skin moles". You can re-word

your question in terms of tosses of a unfair coin that shows heads only

14% of the time. If the coin is tossed 10 times, what is the chance

of a head appearing at least once? Doing the problem the easy way

as I discussed in the "mole" thread, I find a 77.87% chance.

Art